Commodity price trend is expected from the U.S. shackles
Over the past small number months, goods costs and the U.S. dollar in the past small number decades in the configuration of “negative relationship between”, that there have been some subtle changes.
Here, we Commodity Index and the U.S. dollar indicator as an example.
December 5, 2008 to 18, throughout a short time span of eight swapping days, the dollar catalogue dropped from 88 points to 77 points, and in March 9, 2009 to 89 points afresh, and then in the March 19 or Back to 82 points. The Commodity Index turned down to pursue the fluctuations in the dollar catalogue has stayed at 330 points to 360 points, a slender variety of fluctuation between.
Take a gaze at the gold market. Over the past couple of decades, the U.S. dollar gold cost and between the “negative association between the” more prominent. However, in latest months has furthermore altered a lot. That is, if or depreciation of the dollar, gold charges still hovering at high level.
Why is there such abnormal changes?
Trend from the point of view, an unprecedented global financial crisis is clear to see the world, the international bulk commodities denominated in U.S. dollars as the only currency is full of defects and settlement, in addition to the United States to its creditors completely irresponsible attitude and acts around the world will inevitably lead to efforts to change the status of the international monetary system.
The deteriorating United States dollar, considering the bulk goods in the global market is locked-in to be a bewildering – can not find a sense of direction. It in addition reflects the U.S. dollar and goods costs that the aged bond between the break.
From another point of view, the rise of trade protectionism forces once again, competitive devaluation of the currency is bound to become the Government’s policy options. The World Bank issued a March 17 report notes that: Since the financial crisis, countries all over the world, or the introduction of protectionist measures to be introduced about 78, of which 47 have been implemented. In the implementation of the measures, including the devaluation of the currency.
Competitive devaluation of national currencies, and trade protection policies of the introduction of frequent, resulting in the foreign exchange market exchange rate between the various monetary relations (exchange rate) changes frequently, but the rate increase. Such market conditions, in order to hedge for the purpose of making the investors to stay away from the foreign exchange market, and commodity market hedge turn.
If this is the overriding condition of the market risk, and that goods costs will not view at the U.S. face. That is to say: Whether it is or is depreciated dollar, goods costs will only rise. At the matching time, if this eventuates, then the might of countrywide currencies, there will be through the paying for power of goods to be reflected.
Right now, this subject of course, there is no outbreak, it is because goods markets through the rehearse of hedging the market has yet to become ordinarily recognised, but the future? I consider the prospect does exist. At the very slightest, the prevailing in the global fiscal markets show worthy of sombre worry to all varieties of chaos. In item, this is in addition a large number of population to adjudicator the U.S. because of “water” and if there will be a worldwide “stagflation,” a greatest concern.
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